Saturday, November 1, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (11/1/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

6

14

0.6621691

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

-18

35

0.1047084

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0.2

20

0.5055636

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-1.2

25

0.4666562

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

-13

33

0.1823324

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

-0.3

22

0.4916549

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-12

31

0.201358

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

3

17

0.582852

1

Rep Gain

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-9

29

0.2651378

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-6

27

0.3378309

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-24

36

0.0471084

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-9

29

0.2651378

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-8

28

0.2884721

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-16

34

0.1322737

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

6

14

0.6621691

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

32

1

0.9871732

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Walker

Parnell

-3

26

0.417148

-1

Dem Gain

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-0.5

23

0.4860934

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

2

18

0.555458

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

16

10

0.8677263

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

18

7

0.8952916

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-0.6

24

0.4833135

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

0.6

19

0.5166865

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

4

16

0.6098495

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

13

12

0.8176676

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

25

5

0.9593588

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

10

13

0.7571978

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

19

6

0.9073983

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

18

7

0.8952916

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-12

31

0.201358

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

16

10

0.8677263

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

26

3

0.965086

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

28

2

0.9745599

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

17

9

0.8820781

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

0.2

20

0.5055636

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

26

3

0.965086

1

Rep Hold

1

0

14.3407

0.5728676

6

-1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9903256

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

2.2

20

0.5409806

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

5

16

0.5924586

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-18

33

0.199909

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

0.5

22

0.5093294

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-38

36

0.0377477

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-12

28

0.2872973

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Herr

-25

34

0.1211273

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

30

5

0.9197279

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-9

26

0.3368873

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-10

27

0.3199824

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

15

14

0.7585425

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

4.4

33

0.58153

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

28

5

0.9048504

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-0.6

22

0.4888052

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

24

7

0.8691953

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

3.2

18

0.5594912

1

Rep Gain

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

4.5

17

0.583356

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-15

31

0.2414575

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-13

30

0.2715697

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

32

3

0.9327765

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

32

3

0.9327765

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

10

0.7867431

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-33

35

0.0613465

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7728896

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

20

9

0.8252336

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

21

8

0.8370168

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

16

12

0.7728896

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-12

28

0.2872973

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-16

32

0.2271104

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

17

10

0.7867431

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-2.2

25

0.4590194

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

44

2

0.9802093

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

10

15

0.6800176

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-1

24

0.4813464

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

1.7

21

0.5316894

1

Rep Gain

-1

0

21.379

0.5689886

8

7

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

-4

8

0

0

-5

0.2

48

0.5115614

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

9

15

5

10

15

9.9

10

0.9243158

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

6

4

0

0

-5

0.4

46

0.5231131

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-5

3

0

0

-5

-0.9

51

0.4481137

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-10

-10

-4.8

61

0.2433336

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

-6

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

72

0.1011011

California 7

Bera

Ose

-4

0

0

-5

5

-0.4

49

0.4768869

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-15

-15

-15

-10.2

78

0.0696783

California 10

Eggman

Denham

10

1

15

10

15

9.2

14

0.9087785

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-15

-15

-15

-10.4

79

0.0658828

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

15

1

10

10

15

8.7

18

0.8963114

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

24

0.8646381

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-10

-10

15

-1.8

52

0.3971013

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

0

-5

-5

-2.8

55

0.3424529

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

-4

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

66

0.2169393

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-10

-5

-2.8

55

0.3424529

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

-2.5

-2

0

0

5

0.35

47

0.5202266

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

1

-1

5

5

5

2.9

36

0.6628559

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

-16

-3

-10

-10

-15

-9.2

74

0.0912215

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0.5

6

5

5

5

4.25

34

0.731024

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

-1

1

0

0

5

1.1

40

0.5633282

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

19

0.8826522

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

14

0.9087785

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-10

-10

-10

-7.6

68

0.1353619

Hawaii 1

Takai

Djou

1

-15

-10

-10

-15

-9.9

77

0.0756842

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

0

-5

-5

0.8

44

0.5461486

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1353619

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

-4

-5

0

-5

-5

-3.4

58

0.3111015

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

-3

-10

-10

-10

-15

-9.3

75

0.0888674

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

5

2

-5

0

5

0.9

42

0.5518863

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

17

17

10

10

10

11.1

4

0.9461503

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

-9

-11

-5

-10

-10

-8.1

71

0.120226

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

15

10

10

8.2

19

0.8826522

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

0.5

-5

-5

-10

-5

-4.95

64

0.2365768

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

0

0

0

0

5

1

41

0.5576133

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

11

5

15

10

15

10.1

7

0.9283619

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

44

0.5461486

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-1

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.5

54

0.3585633

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

-3

-4

-5

-10

-5

-5.1

65

0.2299245

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

15

15

5

7.4

26

0.8582328

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

10

10

5

6

30

0.8077198

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

17

0.8988989

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

3

3

15

10

10

7.9

23

0.8738693

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

12

4

10

15

15

10

8

0.9263601

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1291577

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

22

2

15

10

15

10.6

5

0.9377504

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

8

3

0

0

5

2.4

37

0.6360085

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-10

6

-10

-5

-10

-4.8

61

0.2433336

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

9

7

10

10

15

9.3

13

0.9111326

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

7

1

0

5

-5

0.9

42

0.5518863

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

10

-1

15

15

15

9.8

11

0.9222286

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

-5

2

-5

-5

-5

-3.1

57

0.3266241

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

39

0.5803891

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

-4

0

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

60

0.2618504

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

24

-1

10

5

15

8.2

19

0.8826522

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

11

0

5

5

10

5.1

33

0.7700755

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-5

-5

-5

-5

-15

-6.5

67

0.1731002

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

32

0.7914768

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

24

0.8646381

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

0

5

2.7

36

0.6522071

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

2

1

0

0

-5

-0.6

50

0.4653547

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-5

-4

-5

-5

-5

-4.3

59

0.26659

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

15

10

15

9

16

0.903932

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

8

0.9263601

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

22

0.8768464

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

-5

-10

-5

-4.8

61

0.2433336

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

8

15

15

15

15

12.8

1

0.9682008

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

15

15

15

11.4

3

0.9507425

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9377504

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

11

0.9222286

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

73

0.096068

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

27

0.8549543

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

15

15

5

7.2

28

0.8516252

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

53

0.3639915

Utah 4

Owens

Love

10

16

10

15

15

12.2

2

0.9614723

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

15

2

5

5

10

5.9

31

0.8037333

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

-9

-4

-10

-15

-15

-9.7

76

0.079902

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

0

10

6.4

29

0.8231646

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-6

14

0

5

-5

2.2

38

0.6250706

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 251; Democrats 187

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 3 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 244; Democrats 194

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