Thursday, July 26, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (7/27/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220 (R +48), Obama at 58.6% of winning the election.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 33; Democrats 17 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 238; Democrats 197;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 315; Republican 220

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 239; Democrats 196

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

15

3

0.891125

6.237874714

Alaska

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

6.8

11

0.7118332

6.406499053

Arkansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

California

55

-17.2

47

0.0787831

4.175505373

Colorado

9

-2.9

34

0.4058282

2.840797445

Connecticut

7

-12

44

0.1620601

0.810300486

DC

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Florida

0

29

-1.1

30

0.4639903

12.52773922

Georgia

16

10

6

0.7943729

11.12122098

Hawaii

4

0

15

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

15

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

15

0.5

9

Indiana

11

9

7

0.7702043

6.931838454

Iowa

6

-1.3

32

0.4574661

1.829864325

Kansas

6

0

15

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

15

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

15

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

-19.2

48

0.0573239

0.515915324

Maine

4

-15.4

46

0.1028639

0.205727813

Maryland

10

0

15

0.5

4

Michigan

16

-1.5

33

0.4509533

6.313345691

Minnesota

10

-10.5

42

0.1941311

1.553049069

Mississippi

6

0

15

0.5

2

Missouri

10

3

13

0.5973549

4.778839559

Montana

3

7

8

0.7174159

0.717415901

Nebraska

5

13

5

0.8572838

2.571851287

Nevada

6

-5.2

37

0.3345884

1.338353601

New Hampshire

4

-5.3

38

0.3316016

0.663203196

New Jersey

14

-15.3

45

0.1043436

1.252123036

New Mexico

5

-10.7

43

0.1896446

0.568933731

New York

29

-26

49

0.0163238

0.440742708

North Carolina

15

0

0.4

14

0.5131099

6.670428604

North Dakota

3

14

4

0.875003

0.875003019

Ohio

18

-4.3

35

0.361922

5.790751845

Oklahoma

7

35

2

0.9979857

4.98992839

Oregon

7

-6

39

0.3110016

1.555008216

Pennsylvania

20

-7.4

40

0.2715773

4.888391392

Rhode Island

4

0

15

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

15

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

15

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

7

8

0.7174159

6.456743105

Texas

38

7

8

0.7174159

25.82697242

Utah

6

40

1

0.9994933

3.997973016

Vermont

3

-31

50

0.005429

0.005429019

Virginia

13

-1.2

31

0.4607269

5.067995788

Washington

12

-10.2

41

0.200981

2.009809881

West Virginia

5

0

15

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

-4.8

36

0.346639

2.773111881

Wyoming

3

6

12

0.6889984

0.688998357

0

Total

315

220

12.1701

0.4731438

0.413557899

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Delaware

Markell

0

6

0.5

-1

Indiana

Gregg

Pence

13

2

0.8771854

1

Kentucky

Beshear

0

6

0.5

-1

Missouri

Nixon

Spence

-11

12

0.1629487

-1

Montana

Bullock

Hill

0

6

0.5

-1

New Hampshire

Cilley

Lamontagne

0.3

5

0.5106876

-1

North Carolina

Dalton

McCrory

5

3

0.6724002

Gain

-1

North Dakota

Taylor

Dalrymple

35

1

0.9991136

1

Utah

Herbert

0

6

0.5

1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

6

0.5

-1

Washington

McKena

Inslee

2.5

4

0.5883394

Gain

-1

West Virginia

Tomblin

Maloney

0

6

0.5

-1

0

11.1969

0.5675562

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Incumbent

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

7.4

3

0.7535015

1

California

Feinstein

Emken

-17.5

31

0.0524838

-1

Connecticut

Murphy

Shays

-3.3

23

0.3799096

-1

Delaware

Carper

0

11

0.5

-1

Florida

Nelson

Mack

-1.4

21

0.4484024

-1

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-13

28

0.1142282

-1

Indiana

Donnelly

Mourdock

21

1

0.9741414

1

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

0.2

10

0.5073913

1

Maine

Dill

Summers

0

11

0.5

Gain

Independent King Leads

1

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-12

26

0.133133

-1

Minnesota

Klobuchar

Bills

-25

32

0.0102778

-1

Mississippi

Gore

Wicker

0

11

0.5

1

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

6

7.5

0.7108437

Gain

-1

Maryland

Cardin

Bongino

0

10

0.5

-1

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

-1.5

21

0.4447398

-1

Nebraska

Kerrey

Ficsher

14

2

0.9026821

Gain

-1

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

4.2

7

0.6513974

1

New York

Gillibrand

Turner

-35.5

33

0.0005031

-1

New Jersey

Menendez

Kyrillos

-12.3

27

0.1272483

-1

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5.5

24

0.3051903

-1

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

5

6

0.6783929

-1

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-9

25

0.2022033

-1

Pennsylvania

Casey

Smith

-15.8

30

0.0716323

-1

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

11

0.5

-1

Tennessee

Corker

0

11

0.5

1

Texas

Hutchison

0

11

0.5

1

Utah

Hatch

0

11

0.5

1

Vermont

Sanders

0

11

0.5

-1

Virginia

Kaine

Allen

0.3

9

0.5110862

Gain

-1

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-13.5

29

0.1055283

-1

West Virginia

Manchin

Raese

0

11

0.5

-1

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

6.6

4

0.7295447

Gain

-1

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

8

0.536906

1

0

10.7943

0.4348899

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824964

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212839

Arkansas 4

Jeffress

Cotton

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126428

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

82

0.4215513

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212839

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

-10

-5

-5

-3.4

92

0.3153725

Arizona 9

Barber

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3357362

California 3

Garamendi

Vann

0

-1

-10

-10

-10

-6.2

108

0.1903706

California 7

Bera

Lungren

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

79

0.4774517

California 9

McNerney

Gill

0

-2

-5

-5

-5

-3.4

92

0.3153725

California 10

Hernandez

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7141346

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

111

0.1477383

California 21

Hernandez

Valadao

0

3

10

10

10

6.6

47

0.8246112

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9625714

California 24

Capps

Maldonado

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053923

California 26

Brownley

Strickland

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

76

0.5225483

California 31

Miller

0

-2

15

15

15

8.6

30

0.8879759

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

39

0.8586913

California 41

Takano

Tavaglione

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053923

California 47

Lowenthal

DeLong

0

-5

-10

-5

-10

-6

107

0.1981476

California 52

Peters

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

75

0.5450247

Colorado 3

Pace

Tipton

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7044453

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253538

Colorado 6

Miklosi

Coffman

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

68

0.6221101

Connecticut 5

Murphy

McMahon

-3

-2

-10

-5

-10

-5.7

104

0.2101666

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

5

10

5

4.8

54

0.7513059

Florida 9

Grayson

Buchanan

0

-3

0

-5

-5

-2.6

86

0.3565941

Florida 26

Rivera

0

4

15

15

5

7.8

38

0.8649285

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824964

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

36

0.8768297

Florida 16

Fitzgerald

0

5

10

5

10

6

51

0.8018524

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

67

0.6221101

Florida 7

Adams

0

4

15

15

15

9.8

16

0.9170479

Florida 22

Hasner

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

100

0.2858654

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

5

5

53

0.7601795

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-10

-10

-7

110

0.1611769

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-5

-4.6

101

0.2577396

Illinois 11

Foster

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

90

0.3254892

Illinois 12

Harriman

Plummer

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

82

0.4215513

Illinois 13

Gill

Davis

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6538932

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

90

0.3254892

Indiana 2

Mullen

Walorski

0

7

5

5

5

4.4

55

0.733047

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

33

0.8824964

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

115

0.1290258

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

112

0.1350715

Iowa 3

Boswell

Latham

0

1

0

5

5

2.2

67

0.6221101

Iowa 4

Vilsack

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

60

0.7044453

Kentucky 6

Chandler

Barr

-5

9

-5

-5

-15

-3.7

98

0.3004553

Maine 2

Michaud

Raye

-12

-3

-10

-10

-15

-8.8

117

0.1067297

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9400432

Maryland 6

Delany

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

-10

-10

-6.4

109

0.1827839

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787161

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-5

-5

-10

-5.4

103

0.2226033

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212839

Michigan 1

McDowell

Benishek

0

3

0

5

5

2.6

66

0.6434059

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

10

10

15

8.2

36

0.8768297

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

25

0.9033125

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

10

5

15

6.2

50

0.8096294

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-15

-15

-8.8

117

0.1067297

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.845639

Minnesota 3

Paulsen

0

0

15

15

15

9

27

0.8983817

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126428

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4105223

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-15

-15

-15

-8

115

0.1290258

Montana 1

Gillan

Daines

6

7

10

5

10

7

44

0.8388231

New Jersey 3

Adler

Runyan

0

2

5

10

10

5.4

52

0.7773967

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

15

15

15

10.4

6

0.9292612

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

133

0.0669905

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126428

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

134

0.0599568

New York 2

King

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8932703

New York 3

Israel

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787161

New York 1

Bishop

Altschuler

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

88

0.3357362

New York 4

McCarthy

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873572

New York 11

Murphy

Grimm

15

5

5

10

10

7.5

40

0.8555006

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

0

2

0

0

5

1.4

73

0.5784487

New York 19

Schreiban

Gibson

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

81

0.4326422

New York 22

Hanna

0

3

10

5

15

6.6

47

0.8246112

New York 21

Owens

Doheny

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

87

0.3461068

New York 24

Maffei

Buerkle

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

99

0.2955547

New York 25

Slaughter

Brooks

0

-5

-5

-5

-10

-5

102

0.2398205

New York 23

Reed

0

3

10

15

15

8.6

30

0.8879759

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

7

0

0

-5

0.4

76

0.5225483

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253538

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

-4

0

5

0

5

1.6

71

0.5894777

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Bass

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

84

0.4105223

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

119

0.1016183

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

11

0.9212839

Nevada 3

Oceguera

Heck

0

0

0

0

5

1

74

0.5562136

Nevada 4

Horsford

Tarkkanian

6

-2

-10

-10

-10

-5.8

105

0.2061135

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9080653

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

Rouzer

0

11

0

5

5

4.2

56

0.7236702

North Carolina 8

Kissell

Hudson

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

49

0.8172161

North Carolina 11

Rogers

Meadows

0

13

10

10

10

8.6

30

0.8879759

North Carolina 13

Malone

Holding

0

10

10

15

15

10

11

0.9212839

North Dakota 1

Heitkamp

Berg

3

10

10

10

15

9.3

24

0.905711

Ohio 6

Wilson

Johnson

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7141346

Ohio 7

Healey-Abrams

Gibbs

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

45

0.8318137

Ohio 16

Sutton

Renacci

-3

4

0

0

5

1.5

72

0.5839715

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

10

6.8

45

0.8318137

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787161

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016183

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126428

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

112

0.1350715

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.845639

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

41

0.845639

Pennsylvania 8

Boockvar

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

64

0.6538932

Pennsylvania 12

Critz

Rothfus

-8

6

0

0

-5

-0.6

80

0.4662

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253538

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

15

15

15

9.4

22

0.9080653

Pennsylvania 18

Murphy

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

25

0.9033125

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

112

0.1350715

South Carolina 7

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

7

0.9253538

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9400432

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873572

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

0

0

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053923

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

15

15

15

10.6

5

0.9330095

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

17

0.9126428

Texas 23

Canseco

0

6

0

0

5

2.2

67

0.6221101

Texas 34

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0873572

Texas 35

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016183

Utah 4

Matheson

Love

-15

13

0

0

-5

0.1

78

0.5056399

Virginia 2

Hirschbiel

Rigell

0

5

5

5

5

4

57

0.7141346

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-15

-15

-9.4

124

0.0919347

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

94

0.3053923

Washington 6

0

-5

-10

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016183

Washington 2

Larsen

0

0

-15

-15

-15

-9

119

0.1016183

Washington 3

Buetler

0

-1

15

15

15

8.8

28

0.8932703

Washington 10

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0787161

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

15

15

10.8

4

0.9366022

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

105

0.2061135

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0829521

Wisconsin 7

Kreitlow

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

63

0.6642638

Wisconsin 8

Wall

Ribble

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

62

0.6846275