Monday, November 3, 2014

2014 Election Trends (11/3/14-Final)

One way to prognosticate the outcome of the 2014 elections is to evaluate trends. Many articles point to the fact that polls have been trending in the Republicans favor over the past few weeks. What does this mean? Many polling outlets conduct weekly or monthly polls of hotly contested Senate and Gubernatorial races. And the results have been on average trending towards Republicans for each of these polls. For instance, an NBC poll may have had Hagan ahead by 6 points in the North Carolina Senate Race last month. However, that margin has slowly deteriorated in Tillis’s favor over the weeks to just a 1 point lead for Hagan now. This and other polls show this race is trending towards Tillis.

However, the best way to look at trends is if we had any actual data. This is hard to come by, but with the onset of early voting small samples of data are out there (electproject.org). However, the early voting data is fairly generic for most states, but a few states provide some ideology breakdown of the voters. Below are tables for 6 states early voting trends for 2010, 2012, and 2014 (States that have a key Senate and or Governor races). If the 2014 trend looks more like 2010 that is good for Republicans but if it looks more like 2012 then that is good for Democrats. This data is not necessarily an apples to apples comparison since early voting laws are changing in these states. For instance, in Colorado, the 2014 election will be conducted entirely by early voting. Other examples include some states have implemented mail in early voting options along with in person early voting. These early voting statistics are updated daily at the electproject.org website.

From electproject.org

Year

State / U.S.

Total Early Vote

Total Vote

Rep (%)

Dem (%)

Delta (%)

2010

U.S.

19,091,000

2010

CO

1,212,000

1,828,000

40.7

34.6

6.1

2010

FL

2,173,000

5,474,000

49.2

36.5

12.7

2010

IA

349,000

1,133,000

38

43.7

-5.7

2010

KS

136,000

858,000

2010

LA

125,000

1,299,000

42.3

46.7

-4.4

2010

NC

957,000

2,701,000

36.5

46.4

-9.9

2010

ME

134,000

581,000

34.5

37.7

-3.2

2010

AVERAGE

726,571

1,982,000

40

40.93333

-0.73333

2012

U.S.

32,311,000

2012

CO

1,873,000

2,422,000

36.1

34.3

1.8

2012

FL

4,469,000

8,454,000

39.1

42.9

-3.8

2012

IA

673,000

1,544,000

32

41.9

-9.9

2012

KS

1,183,000

2012

LA

356,000

1,980,000

34.5

51

-16.5

2012

NC

2,757,000

4,355,000

31.5

47.6

-16.1

2012

ME

170,000

725,000

29.1

39.9

-10.8

2012

AVERAGE

1,716,333

2,951,857

34

42.93333

-9.21667

2014

U.S.

17,412,000

2014

CO

1,380,000

1,380,000

40.5

32.4

8.1

2014

FL

3,050,000

3,050,000

42.8

39.4

3.4

2014

IA

432,000

432,000

38.8

40.6

-1.8

2014

LA

242,000

242,000

33.8

52.6

-18.8

2014

NC

1,156,000

1,156,000

31.9

47.6

-15.7

2014

ME

110,000

110,000

34.3

37.7

-3.4

2014

AVERAGE

1,061,667

1,061,667

37

41.71667

-4.7

2014

KS

153,000

153,000

52.6

33.8

18.8

Based on the Averages it looks like 2014 is between the 2010 and 2012 early vote. Colorado, Iowa, and Maine look favorable for the Republicans. Kansas also looks good for the Republicans. I added this information to the file, but 2014 is the first year they are keeping ideological data. Whereas, North Carolina and Louisiana look good for the Democrats. Florida is a wash, so I doubt either Party can be too happy thus far. Florida, Colorado, and Iowa early vote are trending more Democratic in recent days and Republicans won North Carolina and Louisiana in 2012 when they conceded even larger advantages in the early vote.

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