Tuesday, September 23, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (9/11/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

4.2

20

0.6073509

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

Kashkari

18

6

0.8784997

1

Rep Gain

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

7

16

0.6750983

1

Rep Gain

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

Beauprez

-0.6

24

0.4844782

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Ige

Aiona

7

16

0.6750983

1

Rep Gain

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

7

16

0.6750983

1

Rep Gain

-1

Maryland

Brown

Hogan

-14

31

0.1819204

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

-5

28

0.3728513

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

Johnson

-10.5

29

0.247919

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

Havenstein

-20

33

0.0972737

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-31

36

0.0221771

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

Richardson

-10.5

29

0.247919

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Raimondo

Fung

-25

35

0.0524494

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

Milne

-21

34

0.0865822

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

DuVal

Ducey

7

16

0.6750983

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Griffith

Bentley

25

4

0.9475506

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

11.5

12

0.7721407

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

1

22

0.5258581

1

Rep Hold

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

0.7

23

0.5181072

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

18

6

0.8784997

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

15

8

0.8347067

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Davis

Brownback

-2.5

26

0.4355917

-1

Dem Gain

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-3.3

27

0.4152559

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

1.2

21

0.5310202

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7.5

15

0.6866818

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Goodman

Sandoval

24

5

0.9402283

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

King

Martinez

8

14

0.6980839

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

13

10

0.8004441

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

8.2

13

0.702592

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

-16

32

0.1496827

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

14

9

0.8180796

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

33

1

0.9838409

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

McKamey

Haslam

26

3

0.9541422

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

12.8

11

0.7967973

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconsin

Burke

Walker

-1.7

25

0.4560993

-1

Dem Gain

1

Wyoming

Gosar

Mead

28

2

0.9653257

1

Rep Hold

1

0

15.4173

0.5766626

10

1

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9947646

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

1.3

19

0.5265328

1

Rep Gain

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

2.3

17

0.5468689

1

Rep Gain

-1

Delaware

Coons

Wade

-13

31

0.2528435

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Perdue

1.4

18

0.5285704

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Cavasso

-32

36

0.0506772

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

-9

27

0.3224789

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

Addivinola

-26

35

0.091572

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Bellows

Collins

36

2

0.9673437

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-3.8

25

0.4228723

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

McFadden

-9.5

28

0.3133499

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Childers

Cochran

13.5

15

0.7552698

1

Rep Hold

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

5.2

31

0.604968

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

30

3

0.9377219

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Orman

Roberts

-2

22

0.4592215

-1

Dem Gain

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

22

7

0.8699906

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3

23

0.4389654

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1.3

19

0.5265328

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

Bell

-12

29

0.2694851

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

Weh

-17

33

0.1920522

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Johnson

Langford

27

6

0.9165655

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Silverstein

Inhofe

29

5

0.9311923

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

17

9

0.8079478

1

Rep Gain

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

Zaccaria

-15

32

0.2212544

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Adams

Alexander

16

11

0.7936528

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Alameel

Cornyn

17

9

0.8079478

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Dickerson

Scott

18

8

0.82162

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Hutto

Graham

15

13

0.7787456

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

Gillespie

-18

34

0.17838

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

-12

29

0.2694851

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

17

9

0.8079478

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-5.4

26

0.3910947

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Hardy

Enzi

36

2

0.9673437

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14.5

14

0.7710669

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

0.8

21

0.5163353

1

Rep Gain

-1

Iowa

Braley

Ernst

-1

22

0.479584

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

19.5322

0.5686442

6

6

-6

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

Hill

14

8

5

5

5

6

26

0.8298971

Arkansas 4

Witt

Westerman

16

15

10

10

15

11.6

2

0.9674036

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

Tobin

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

40

0.487319

Arizona 2

Barber

McSally

-8

3

0

0

-5

-1.2

46

0.4243601

Arizona 9

Sinema

Rogers

0

1

-5

-5

-10

-3.8

60

0.2729062

California 3

Garamendi

Logue

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

72

0.0962072

California 7

Bera

Ose

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.375273

California 9

McNerney

Amador

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0718117

California 10

Eggman

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

20

0.873794

California 16

Costa

Tacherra

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0675588

California 21

Renteria

Valadao

19

-2

5

5

5

4.5

29

0.762794

California 25

Strckland

0

3

10

15

10

7.6

17

0.8864945

California 24

Capps

Mitchum

0

-4

-15

-5

15

-1.8

49

0.3873902

California 26

Brownley

Gorell

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

60

0.2729062

California 31

Aguilar

Chabot

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

63

0.2624407

California 36

Ruiz

Nestande

0

1

0

-5

-10

-2.8

55

0.3281283

California 52

Peters

DiMaio

7

-2

0

0

5

1.3

36

0.5818575

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

47

0.4243601

Connecticut 5

Esty

Greenberg

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

68

0.1135055

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

-2

6

5

5

5

4

30

0.7375593

Florida 26

Garcia

Cubelo

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

43

0.4494038

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

12

0.9037928

Florida 13

Sink

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9281883

Florida 18

Murphy

Domino

-22

3

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

66

0.1866861

Hawaii 2

Gabbard

Crowley

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0524671

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

40

0.487319

Illinois 8

Duckworth

Kaifesh

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

68

0.1135055

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

3

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.3

57

0.299942

Illinois 11

Foster

Senger

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0858042

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

50

0.375273

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

34

0.683276

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-10

-10

-6.4

67

0.1544953

Indiana 2

Bock

Walorski

0

6

10

10

10

7.2

20

0.873794

Iowa 1

Murphy

Blum

-2.5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.25

73

0.0948583

Iowa 3

Appel

Young

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

44

0.4368503

Iowa 4

Mowrer

King

0

5

10

10

15

8

13

0.8982562

Kentucky 6

Jensen

Barr

0

9

15

-5

-15

0.8

37

0.5505962

Maine 2

Cain

Poliquin

-5

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.9

65

0.2180185

Massachusetts 6

Moulton

Tisei

5

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.3

57

0.299942

Michigan 8

Schertzeing

Bishop

0

2

10

15

5

6.4

24

0.8455047

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

5

4

30

0.7375593

Michigan 3

Goodrich

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9190704

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

15

5

10

6.6

23

0.8529419

Michigan 11

McKenzie

Trott

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

7

0.9190704

Minnesota 1

Walz

Hagedorn

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

70

0.1075088

Minnesota 2

Obermueller

Kline

0

2

15

10

15

8.4

10

0.9091047

Minnesota 8

Nolan

Mills

0

-1

0

0

-5

-1.2

46

0.4243601

Minnesota 7

Peterson

Westrom

-4

6

-10

-5

-5

-3.2

56

0.3054913

Montana 1

Lewis

Zinke

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

10

0.9091047

New Jersey 3

Belgard

McArthur

0

1

0

5

-5

0.2

39

0.512681

New Jersey 2

Hughes

LoBiondo

0

-1

15

10

15

7.8

16

0.8924912

New York 1

Bishop

Zeldin

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

53

0.3396951

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

53

0.3396951

New York 18

Maloney

Hayworth

4

0

-5

-5

-10

-3.6

59

0.2835746

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

35

0.6718717

New York 21

Woolf

Stefanik

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

44

0.4368503

New York 24

Maffei

Katko

-6

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

74

0.0858042

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

27

0.8133139

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

17

0.8864945

Nebraska 2

Ashford

Terry

-1

4

5

5

5

3.7

32

0.7217846

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

1

1

0

0

-5

-0.7

42

0.4557004

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

Garcia

-6

-3

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

64

0.2521846

New Mexico 2

Lara

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

13

0.8982562

Nevada 2

Spees

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

5

0.9440372

Nevada 3

Bilbay

Heck

0

10

10

10

10

8

13

0.8982562

Nevada 4

Horsford

Hardy

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

60

0.2729062

North Carolina 2

Aiken

Ellmers

0

15

10

15

15

11

3

0.9598162

North Carolina 7

Barfield

Rouzer

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

4

0.950853

Ohio 6

Garrison

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

9

0.9141958

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

22

0.8601351

Oregon 5

Schrader

Smith

0

0

-10

-15

-15

-8

71

0.1017438

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

9

2

10

10

10

7.3

19

0.8770583

Pennsylvania 8

Strouse

Fitzpatrick

0

1

10

10

5

5.2

28

0.7957655

Texas 23

Gallego

Hurd

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

52

0.3514149

Utah 4

Owens

Love

11

16

10

15

15

12.3

1

0.9747206

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

33

0.7055612

Washington 1

Delbene

Larsen

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0809296

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

12

11

5

5

5

6.4

24

0.8455047

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

-12

14

0

0

-5

0.6

38

0.5379919

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 21 (including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 28; Democrats 22 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 204; Model Projection: Republicans 244; Democrats 194

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 30; Democrats 20 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 51; Democrats 49 (Including 2 Independents)

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