Friday, May 23, 2014

2014 Election Polls and Models (5/23/14)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly (many primaries and candidates have not been decided and most polls are not pertinent because they do not contain the right candidates). Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 45; Democrats 55 (Including 2 Independents); Model Projection - Republicans 48; Democrats 52 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 234; Democrats 201; Model Projection: Republicans 237; Democrats 201

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Governor Races: Republicans 27; Democrats 23 (including 2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 237; Democrats 201

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Arkansas

Ross

Hutchinson

7.5

8

0.7554886

1

Rep Gain

-1

California

Brown

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Connecticut

Malloy

Foley

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Colorado

Hickenlooper

-10

33

0.1781378

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Hawaii

Abercrombie

Aiona

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Quinn

Rauner

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maryland

O'Malley

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massacusetts

Coakley

Baker

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Dayton

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Hampshire

Hassan

-22

35

0.0212053

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New York

Cuomo

Astorino

-29

36

0.0037342

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Kitzhaber

-12

34

0.1341508

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Chafee

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Vermont

Shumlin

0

22

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arizona

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Alabama

Bentley

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Mallott

Parnell

10

5

0.8218622

1

Rep Hold

1

Florida

Crist

Scott

-3

32

0.3909877

-1

Dem Gain

1

Georgia

Carter

Deal

6

10

0.7100364

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Balukoff

Otter

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Iowa

Hatch

Branstad

10

5

0.8218622

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Brownback

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Maine

Michaud

LePage

-1

31

0.4632503

-1

Dem Gain

1

Michigan

Schauer

Snyder

11

3

0.8448836

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Hassebrook

Ricketts

7

9

0.740776

1

Rep Hold

1

Nevada

Sandoval

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

New Mexico

Martinez

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Dorman

Fallin

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Ohio

Fitzgerald

Kasich

11

3

0.8448836

1

Rep Hold

1

Pennsylvania

Wolf

Corbett

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Sheheen

Haley

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

South Dakota

Wismer

Daugarrd

33

1

0.9988335

1

Rep Hold

1

Tennessee

Haslam

30

2

0.9971752

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Davis

Abbott

9

7

0.7967975

1

Rep Hold

1

Wisconis

Walker

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

Wyoming

Mead

1

11

0.5367497

1

Rep Hold

1

0

10.8403

0.547795

6

-2

8

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Gain

Incumbent

Alabama

Unopposed

Sessions

50

1

0.9999911

1

Rep Hold

1

Alaska

Begich

Sullivan

-6

31

0.303332

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Arkansas

Pryor

Cotton

-4

29

0.3657136

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Delaware

Coons

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Georgia

Nunn

Purdue

1.5

6

0.5512066

1

Rep Hold

1

Hawaii

Schatz

Hanabusa

-4

29

0.3657136

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Illinois

Durbin

Oberweis

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Massachusetts

Markey

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Maine

Collins

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Michigan

Peters

Land

-0.3

26

0.4897315

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Minnesota

Franken

-15

33

0.0990291

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Mississippi

Cochran

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Gain

1

Kentucky

Grimes

McConnell

0.5

37

0.5171107

1

Rep Hold

1

Idaho

Mitchell

Risch

1

6

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Kansas

Roberts

1

6

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Nebraska

Domina

Sasse

17

3

0.9276785

1

Rep Hold

1

Colorado

Udall

Gardner

-3

27

0.398427

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Louisiana

Landrieu

Cassidy

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Jersey

Booker

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

New Mexico

Udall

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oklahoma

Coburn

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Oklahoma

Inhofe

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Montana

Walsh

Daines

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Rhode Island

Reed

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Tennessee

Alexander

25

2

0.9840305

1

Rep Hold

1

Texas

Cornyn

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Scott

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

South Carolina

Graham

1

7

0.53419

1

Rep Hold

1

Virginia

Warner

-15

33

0.0990291

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Oregon

Merkley

Wehby

0

17

0.5

-1

Dem Hold

-1

West Virginia

Tennant

Capito

13

5

0.8676796

1

Rep Gain

-1

New Hampshire

Shaheen

Brown

-7

32

0.2740372

-1

Dem Hold

-1

Wyoming

Enzi

-15.5

35

0.091758

-1

Dem Gain

1

South Dakota

Weiland

Rounds

14

4

0.8851819

1

Rep Gain

-1

North Carolina

Hagan

Tillis

-0.8

27

0.4726359

-1

Dem Hold

-1

0

11.6541

0.5043084

-3

2

-5

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 2

Hays

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

28

0.776822

Arkansas 4

0

15

10

10

15

10

3

0.9510828

Arizona 1

Kirkpatrick

0

4

0

0

-5

-0.2

41

0.4867939

Arizona 2

Barber

0

3

0

0

-5

-0.4

44

0.4736022

Arizona 9

Sinema

0

1

-5

-5

-5

-2.8

54

0.3214943

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-10

-15

-15

-8.2

74

0.0873169

California 7

Bera

0

0

0

-5

-5

-2

50

0.3702887

California 9

McNerney

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

77

0.0638783

California 10

Denham

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

17

0.8833536

California 16

Costa

0

-7

-10

-15

-15

-9.4

78

0.0598401

California 21

Valadao

0

-2

5

5

5

2.6

35

0.6665533

California 25

0

3

10

5

10

5.6

22

0.8230494

California 24

Capps

0

-4

-10

-5

15

-0.8

45

0.4473199

California 26

Brownley

0

-4

-5

-10

-10

-5.8

66

0.168488

California 31

0

-5

-5

-5

-5

-4

62

0.2539287

California 36

Ruiz

0

1

0

-5

-5

-1.8

49

0.3828592

California 52

Peters

0

-2

0

0

5

0.6

40

0.5395605

Colorado 6

Romanoff

Coffman

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

40

0.5526801

Connecticut 5

Esty

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

69

0.104171

Florida 2

Graham

Southerland

0

6

5

5

5

4.2

30

0.7565621

Florida 26

Garcia

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

45

0.4473199

Florida 10

Demings

Webster

0

6

5

15

15

8.2

12

0.9126831

Florida 13

Jolly

0

1

15

15

15

9.2

6

0.9361217

Florida 18

Murphy

0

3

0

-5

-5

-1.4

48

0.4083614

Hawaii 2

0

-21

-10

-5

-15

-10.2

79

0.0456526

Georgia 12

Barrow

Allen

0

14

-5

-5

-5

-0.2

41

0.4867939

Illinois 8

Duckworth

0

-8

-10

-5

-15

-7.6

69

0.104171

Illinois 10

Schneider

Dold

0

-8

0

-5

-5

-3.6

58

0.275601

Illinois 11

Foster

0

-8

-10

-10

-15

-8.6

75

0.0772693

Illinois 12

Enyart

Bost

0

0

-5

-5

-5

-3

56

0.3097239

Illinois 13

Callis

Davis

0

0

5

5

5

3

34

0.6902761

Illinois 17

Bustos

Schilling

0

-7

-5

-5

-5

-4.4

63

0.2331858

Indiana 2

Walorski

0

6

5

5

10

5.2

25

0.8053344

Iowa 1

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0926926

Iowa 3

Appel

0

0

0

0

5

1

38

0.5657422

Iowa 4

King

0

5

10

15

15

9

7

0.9318747

Kentucky 6

Barr

0

9

10

-5

-15

-0.2

41

0.4867939

Maine 2

0

-2

-5

-5

-10

-4.4

63

0.2331858

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

Tisei

0

-4

-5

-5

-5

-3.8

60

0.264652

Michigan 8

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

32

0.7132318

Michigan 1

Cannon

Benishek

0

5

5

5

15

6

20

0.8397099

Michigan 3

Amash

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

8

0.9274129

Michigan 7

Byrnes

Walberg

0

3

5

5

10

4.6

28

0.776822

Michigan 11

Bentivolio

0

4

10

10

15

7.8

14

0.9016909

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-10

-15

-15

-7.8

71

0.0983091

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

16

0.8897178

Minnesota 8

Nolan

0

-1

-5

-5

-5

-3.2

57

0.2981454

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

6

-10

-10

-10

-4.8

65

0.2134193

Montana 1

0

7

10

10

15

8.4

11

0.9178225

New Jersey 3

0

1

0

0

5

1.2

37

0.578733

New Jersey 2

LoBiondo

0

-1

10

10

15

6.8

18

0.8698541

New York 1

Bishop

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3334467

New York 11

Recchia

Grimm

0

2

-5

-5

-5

-2.6

52

0.3334467

New York 18

Maloney

0

0

-5

-10

-15

-6

67

0.1602901

New York 19

Eldridge

Gibson

0

-1

5

0

5

1.8

36

0.6171408

New York 21

0

0

0

0

-5

-1

47

0.4342578

New York 24

Maffei

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

72

0.0926926

New York 23

Robertson

Reed

0

3

15

5

5

5.6

22

0.8230494

New York 27

Hochul

Collins

0

8

0

15

15

7.6

15

0.895829

Nebraska 2

Sullivan

Terry

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

8

0.9274129

New Hampshire 1

Shea-Porter

Guinta

0

1

0

0

-15

-2.8

54

0.3214943

New Hampshire 2

Kuster

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

58

0.275601

New Mexico 2

Pearce

0

5

10

10

15

8

13

0.9073074

Nevada 2

Koepnick

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

3

0.9510828

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

5

10

15

6

20

0.8397099

Nevada 4

Horsford

0

-4

0

-10

-5

-3.8

60

0.264652

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

10

10

15

15

10

3

0.9510828

North Carolina 7

0

12

10

15

15

10.4

1

0.9574346

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

10

0.9227307

Ohio 14

Wager

Joyce

0

4

10

10

10

6.8

18

0.8698541

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

68

0.1232667

Pennsylvania 6

Trivedi

Costello

0

2

5

5

5

3.4

32

0.7132318

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

1

5

5

10

4.2

30

0.7565621

Texas 23

Gallego

0

3

-5

-5

-5

-2.4

51

0.3455707

Utah 4

Owens

Love

0

16

10

10

15

10.2

2

0.9543474

Virginia 10

Foust

Comstock

0

2

5

5

15

5.4

24

0.8143229

Washington 1

Delbene

0

-4

-10

-15

-15

-8.8

76

0.0725871

West Virginia 2

Mooney

Casey

0

11

5

5

5

5.2

25

0.8053344

West Virginia 3

Rahall

Jenkins

0

14

0

5

5

4.8

27

0.7865807

No comments:

Post a Comment