Friday, March 2, 2012

2012 Election Polls and Models (3/1/12)

Below are poll averages (from Real Clear Politics) for Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, and contested House seats. A positive poll average favors the Republican candidate whereas a negative poll average favors the Democratic candidate. From the poll averages a ranking and probability are calculated for each race. A probability above 0.5 (50%) favors the Republican candidate whereas a probability under 0.5 favors the Democratic candidate. The higher ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Republican candidate. The lower the ranking, the higher the probability the race will go to the Democratic candidate. Since polling in House races are not very accurate, the formula to calculate the probability is more complex taking into account race ratings by the Cook, Election Projection, and Sabato political reports as well as generic congressional polling results and PVI (Partisan Voting Index). A positive PVI means the percentage of registered Republicans in the district outnumbers registered Democrats whereas a negative PVI means the percentage of registered Democrats in the district outnumbers registered Republicans. The overall probability for the President, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races are computed to project the number of seats (including the presidency) that are going to be won by Republicans and Democrats respectively. Race candidates will be filled in to the below tables once they are determined by state primaries. I will update and post this information regularly. Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based on probability density function models.

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206 (R +34)

Governor Races: Current - Republicans 29; Democrats 19 (2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Current - Republicans 47; Democrats 53 (Including 2 Independents); Projection - Republicans 50; Democrats 50 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Current - Republicans 242; Democrats 193; Projection: Republicans 242; Democrats 193;

Below is an overall summary of the predicted outcomes based solely on election polls:

Presidential Electoral Vote: Obama 326; Republican 206

Governor Races: Republicans 31; Democrats 17 (2 Independents)

Senate Races: Republicans 52; Democrats 48 (Including 2 Independents)

House Races: Republicans 232; Democrats 203

Presidential Race

State

Democrat Electoral Vote

Republican Electoral Vote

Poll

Rank

Probability

Weighted Probability

Alabama

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Alaska

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Arizona

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Arkansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

California

55

0

2

0.5

26.5

Colorado

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

Connecticut

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

DC

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Florida

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

Georgia

16

0

2

0.5

7

Hawaii

4

0

2

0.5

1

Idaho

4

0

2

0.5

1

Illinois

20

0

2

0.5

9

Indiana

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Iowa

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kansas

6

0

2

0.5

2

Kentucky

8

0

2

0.5

3

Louisiana

8

0

2

0.5

3

Massachusetts

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Maine

4

0

2

0.5

1

Maryland

10

0

2

0.5

4

Michigan

16

0

2

0.5

7

Minnesota

10

0

2

0.5

4

Mississippi

6

0

2

0.5

2

Missouri

10

0

2

0.5

4

Montana

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Nebraska

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Nevada

6

0

2

0.5

2

New Hampshire

4

0

2

0.5

1

New Jersey

14

0

2

0.5

6

New Mexico

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

New York

29

0

2

0.5

13.5

North Carolina

15

0

2

0.5

6.5

North Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Ohio

18

0

2

0.5

8

Oklahoma

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Oregon

7

0

2

0.5

2.5

Pennsylvania

20

0

2

0.5

9

Rhode Island

4

0

2

0.5

1

South Carolina

9

0

2

0.5

3.5

South Dakota

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Tennessee

11

0

2

0.5

4.5

Texas

38

0

2

0.5

18

Utah

6

0

2

0.5

2

Vermont

3

0

2

0.5

0.5

Virginia

13

0

2

0.5

5.5

Washington

12

0

2

0.5

5

West Virginia

5

0

2

0.5

1.5

Wisconsin

10

0

2

0.5

4

Wyoming

3

6

1

1

1

0

Total

329

206

0.84853

0.51

0.501149425

Governor Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Delaware

Markell

0

3

0.5

Indiana

Daniels

0

3

0.5

Kentucky

Beshear

0

3

0.5

Lousiana

Jindal

0

3

0.5

Mississippi

Barbour

0

3

0.5

Missouri

Nixon

-18

14

0.0003178

Montana

Schweitzer

0

3

0.5

New Hampshire

Lynch

0

3

0.5

North Carolina

Bowles

McCrory

2

2

0.6478595

Gain

North Dakota

Dalrymple

0

3

0.5

Utah

Herbert

0

3

0.5

Vermont

Shumlin

0

3

0.5

Washington

McKena

Inslee

6.3

1

0.8840689

Gain

West Virgina

Tomblin

0

3

0.5

0

5.26943

0.5023033

Senate Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

Rank

Probability

Arizona

Carmona

Flake

9.3

1

0.9508978

California

Feinstein

0

7

0.5

Connecticut

Lieberman

0

7

0.5

Delaware

Carper

0

7

0.5

Florida

Nelson

Mack

0

7

0.5

Hawaii

Hirono

Lingle

-20

33

0.0001881

Indiana

Lugar

0

7

0.5

Massachusetts

Warren

Brown

-0.3

28

0.4787295

Gain

Maine

Snowe

0

7

0.5

Michigan

Stabenow

Hoekstra

-15

31

0.0038251

Minnesota

Klobuchar

0

7

0.5

Mississippi

Wicker

0

7

0.5

Missouri

McCaskill

Steelman

1

4

0.5705634

Gain

Maryland

Cardin

0

6

0.5

Montana

Tester

Rehberg

1.6

2

0.6119841

Gain

Nebraska

Nelson

0

7

0.5

Nevada

Berkley

Heller

0

7

0.5

New York

Gillibrand

0

7

0.5

New Jersey

Menendez

0

7

0.5

New Mexico

Heinrich

Wilson

-5

29

0.1869898

North Dakota

Heitkamp

Berg

0

7

0.5

Ohio

Brown

Mandel

-9.3

30

0.0491022

Pennsylvania

Casey

0

7

0.5

Rhode Island

Whitehouse

0

7

0.5

Tennessee

Corker

0

7

0.5

Texas

Hutchison

0

7

0.5

Utah

Hatch

0

7

0.5

Vermont

Sanders

0

7

0.5

Virgina

Kaine

Allen

0.2

6

0.5141841

Gain

Washington

Cantwell

Baumgartner

-15

31

0.0038251

West Virgina

Manchin

0

7

0.5

Wisconsin

Baldwin

Thompson

5

2

0.8130102

Gain

Wyoming

Barrasso

1

4

0.5705634

0

5.62402

0.4622383

House Races

State

Democrat

Republican

Poll

PVI

Cook

Sabato

Election Projection

AVE

Rank

Probability

Arkansas 1

Crawford

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122595

Arkansas 2

Griffin

0

5

10

15

15

9

19

0.9027101

Arkansas 4

Ross

0

8

5

5

5

4.6

60

0.7463307

Arizona 1

Gosar

0

6

0

-5

10

2.2

75

0.6244089

Arizona 5

Schweikert

0

5

15

0

5

5

57

0.7644341

Arizona 2

Giffords

0

3

0

-10

-15

-4.4

93

0.2629875

Arizona 9

0

0

-5

0

-5

-2

87

0.3865756

California 3

Garamendi

0

-1

-5

-10

-15

-6.2

106

0.1857701

California 7

Lungren

0

3

0

0

5

1.6

77

0.5911889

California 9

McNerney

0

-2

-5

-5

-15

-5.4

96

0.2181991

California 10

Denham

0

5

5

5

5

4

62

0.7178651

California 16

Costa

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

110

0.1430886

California 21

0

3

5

0

15

4.6

60

0.7463307

California 23

McCarthy

0

18

15

15

15

12.6

1

0.9653155

California 24

Capps

0

-3

-10

-5

-15

-6.6

107

0.1707405

California 26

0

-3

0

0

-5

-1.6

85

0.4088111

California 31

Miller

0

-2

0

-5

-5

-2.4

88

0.3647065

California 36

Bono Mack

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

35

0.8633229

California 41

0

-3

-5

-5

-15

-5.6

98

0.2098

California 47

0

-5

-10

-5

-15

-7

108

0.1565127

California 52

Bilbray

0

-1

0

0

5

0.8

79

0.5458972

Colorado 3

Tipton

0

4

5

10

15

6.8

44

0.8364739

Colorado 4

Gardner

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9292331

Colorado 6

Coffman

0

1

5

5

5

3.2

69

0.6776756

Connecticut 5

Murphy

0

-2

-10

-10

-15

-7.4

110

0.1430886

Florida 2

Southerland

0

4

10

15

15

8.8

23

0.8976589

Florida 9

0

-3

-5

-15

-15

-7.6

112

0.1366771

Florida 8

0

2

15

10

15

8.4

26

0.8869896

Florida 10

Webster

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122595

Florida 13

Young

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8502997

Florida 16

Buchanan

0

5

10

15

15

9

19

0.9027101

Florida 18

West

0

1

0

0

15

3.2

68

0.6776756

Florida 24

Adams

0

4

15

10

15

8.8

23

0.8976589

Florida 25

Rivera

0

5

15

5

15

8

32

0.8755493

Georgia 12

Barrow

0

10

5

5

10

6

50

0.8064165

Illinois 8

Walsh

0

-5

-10

-5

-5

-5

95

0.2355659

Illinois 10

Dold

0

-8

-5

-5

-10

-5.6

98

0.2098

Illinois 11

Biggert

0

-6

0

-5

-5

-3.2

89

0.3223244

Illinois 12

Costello

0

-2

0

0

-5

-1.4

84

0.4200448

Illinois 13

Johnson

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.656731

Illinois 17

Schilling

0

-6

-5

-5

-5

-4.2

92

0.2724777

Indiana 2

Donnelly

0

7

5

5

10

5.4

54

0.7818009

Indiana 8

Bucshon

0

7

10

10

5

6.4

47

0.8218446

Iowa 1

Braley

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

117

0.1244507

Iowa 2

Loebsack

0

-4

-10

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304649

Iowa 3

Boswell

0

1

0

0

-5

-0.8

82

0.4541028

Iowa 4

King

0

4

5

5

5

3.8

65

0.708046

Kentucky 6

Chandler

0

9

-5

-5

-5

-1.2

83

0.4313441

Maine 2

Michaud

0

-3

-10

-10

-15

-7.6

112

0.1366771

Maryland 1

Harris

0

10

15

15

15

11

2

0.9435628

Maryland 6

Bartlett

0

-2

-10

0

-5

-3.4

90

0.3120548

Massachusetts 10

Keating

0

-5

-15

-15

-15

-10

129

0.0747532

Massachusetts 6

Tierney

0

-7

-10

-10

-15

-8.4

120

0.1130104

Missouri 2

Akin

0

5

10

10

5

6

50

0.8064165

Michigan 1

Benishek

0

3

5

10

15

6.6

46

0.8292595

Michigan 3

Amash

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9292331

Michigan 7

Walberg

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8502997

Michigan 11

McCotter

0

1

15

10

15

8.2

30

0.8813669

Minnesota 1

Walz

0

1

-15

-10

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304649

Minnesota 2

Kline

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8502997

Minnesota 6

Bachman

0

7

15

10

15

9.4

12

0.9122595

Minnesota 8

Cravaack

0

-3

0

5

5

1.4

78

0.5799552

Minnesota 7

Peterson

0

5

-10

-10

-15

-6

103

0.1935835

Montana 1

Rehberg

0

7

10

5

5

5.4

54

0.7818009

New Jersey 3

Runyan

0

1

5

5

15

5.2

56

0.7732113

New Jersey 5

Garrett

0

7

10

15

15

9.4

12

0.9122595

New Jersey 6

Pallone

0

-8

-15

-15

-15

-10.6

130

0.0632868

New Jersey 7

Lance

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167635

New Jersey 8

Pascrell

0

-10

-15

-15

-15

-11

132

0.0564372

New Jersey 9

Rothman

0

-9

-15

-15

-15

-10.8

131

0.0597852

New Jersey 12

Holt

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

122

0.0972899

New York 1

Bishop

0

0

-10

-5

-15

-6

103

0.1935835

New York 9

Turner

0

-5

0

15

15

5

57

0.7644341

New York 13

Grimm

0

4

5

15

15

7.8

34

0.8695351

New York 19

Hayworth

0

3

10

10

15

7.6

35

0.8633229

New York 20

Gibson

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

37

0.8569114

New York 22

Hinchey

0

-6

-10

-15

-15

-9.2

124

0.092424

New York 23

Owens

0

1

-5

-5

-15

-4.8

94

0.2445273

New York 24

Hanna

0

2

10

10

15

7.4

37

0.8569114

New York 25

Buerkle

0

-3

0

0

-0.6

81

0.4655438

New York 26

Hochul

0

6

-5

-15

-15

-5.8

100

0.2015941

Nebraska 2

Terry

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.907576

New Hampshire 1

Guinta

0

0

10

5

5

4

62

0.7178651

New Hampshire 2

Bass

0

-3

0

0

5

0.4

80

0.5229867

New Mexico 1

Heinrich

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

117

0.1244507

Nevada 2

Amodei

0

5

15

15

15

10

6

0.9252468

Nevada 3

Heck

0

0

0

5

5

2

76

0.6134244

Nevada 4

0

-2

-10

-10

-5

-5.4

96

0.2181991

North Carolina 2

Ellmers

0

2

15

10

15

8.4

26

0.8869896

North Carolina 7

McIntyre

0

11

0

0

5

3.2

68

0.6776756

North Carolina 8

Kissell

0

12

5

5

10

6.4

47

0.8218446

North Carolina 11

Shuler

0

13

10

0

5

5.6

53

0.7902

North Carolina 13

Miller

0

10

10

5

10

7

43

0.8434873

North Dakota 1

Berg

0

10

10

10

15

9

19

0.9027101

Ohio 6

Johnson

0

5

5

10

5

5

57

0.7644341

Ohio 7

Gibbs

0

4

10

15

5

6.8

44

0.8364739

Ohio 16

Renacci

0

4

0

5

5

2.8

72

0.656731

Oklahoma 2

Boren

0

14

5

5

5

5.8

52

0.7984059

Oregon 1

Wu

0

-5

-15

-10

-15

-9

122

0.0972899

Oregon 5

Schrader

0

0

-10

-10

-15

-7

108

0.1565127

Pennsylvania 3

Kelly

0

3

15

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167635

Pennsylvania 4

Altmire

0

6

-15

-5

-15

-5.8

100

0.2015941

Pennsylvania 6

Gerlach

0

1

10

15

15

8.2

30

0.8813669

Pennsylvania 7

Meehan

0

1

10

10

15

7.2

39

0.8502997

Pennsylvania 8

Fitzpatrick

0

-1

5

5

5

2.8

72

0.656731

Pennsylvania 12

Altmire

0

6

-5

-5

-5

-1.8

86

0.3976518

Pennsylvania 11

Barletta

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.907576

Pennsylvania 15

Dent

0

2

10

15

15

8.4

26

0.8869896

Pennsylvania 16

Pitts

0

6

15

15

15

10.2

3

0.9292331

Pennsylvania 17

Holden

0

6

-15

-15

-15

-7.8

114

0.1304649

South Carolina 7

0

6

10

15

15

9.2

16

0.907576

South Dakota 1

Noem

0

10

15

10

15

10

6

0.9252468

Tennessee 5

Cooper

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0832365

Rhode Island 1

Cicilline

0

-13

-10

-10

-15

-9.6

125

0.0832365

Texas 10

McCaul

0

8

10

10

15

8.6

25

0.8924195

Texas 14

Paul

0

8

10

15

15

9.6

9

0.9167635

Texas 23

Canseco

0

5

0

5

10

4

62

0.7178651

Texas 27

0

-3

-10

15

15

3.4

67

0.6879452

Texas 35

0

0

-15

0

-15

-6

103

0.1935835

Utah 4

Matheson

0

13

0

0

5

3.6

66

0.6980708

Virginia 2

Rigell

0

5

10

15

15

9

19

0.9027101

Virginia 11

Connolly

0

-2

-15

-10

-15

-8.4

120

0.1130104

Washington 1

Inslee

0

-3

-5

-5

-5

-3.6

91

0.3019292

Washington 2

Larsen

0

-3

-15

-15

-15

-9.6

125

0.0832365

Washington 3

Herrero-Beutler

0

0

15

10

15

8

32

0.8755493

Washington 8

Reichert

0

-3

15

15

15

8.4

26

0.8869896

Washinton 10

0

-5

-10

-10

-15

-8

117

0.1244507

West Virginia 1

McKinley

0

9

15

10

15

9.8

8

0.9210915

West Virginia 3

Rahall

0

6

-10

-10

-15

-5.8

100

0.2015941

Wisconsin 3

Kind

0

-4

-15

-15

-15

-9.8

128

0.0789085

Wisconsin 7

Duffy

0

0

5

5

5

3

71

0.6672685

Wisconsin 8

Ribble

0

2

5

10

15

6.4

47

0.8218446

0

0

0

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