Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The Relationship Between Energy Costs, Global Temperatures, CO2, and Energy Consumption (Part VI)

Below is the result of running a linear regression analysis on the model posted in Part I of this series of blogs solving for global carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere (CO2).

clip_image001

n

26

           

             

R2

1.00

           

Adjusted R2

1.00

           

SE

0.619

           
               

Term

Coefficient

95% CI

SE

t statistic

DF

p

Intercept

391.7

-155.6

to 939.1

241.95

1.62

9

0.1399

Temp

3.437

-0.725

to 7.598

1.8397

1.87

9

0.0946

Temp5

6.772

-8.159

to 21.703

6.6002

1.03

9

0.3317

Energy Cost

1.29

-1.47

to 4.05

1.218

1.06

9

0.3173

Energy Cons

8.6712E-08

-6.1142E-07

to 7.8484E-07

3.0861E-007

0.28

9

0.7851

USP

-7.274

-132.694

to 118.145

55.4423

-0.13

9

0.8985

CO2 GDP

-0.05882

-0.12638

to 0.00873

0.029862

-1.97

9

0.0804

CO2 GDP1

-0.001466

-0.071025

to 0.068093

0.0307489

-0.05

9

0.9630

Wind KWH1

41.13

-59.46

to 141.73

44.469

0.92

9

0.3791

Solar KWH1

-41.16

-222.38

to 140.06

80.109

-0.51

9

0.6198

Geo KWH1

25.52

-61.49

to 112.52

38.461

0.66

9

0.5236

Hydro KWH1

5.829

-50.193

to 61.852

24.7651

0.24

9

0.8192

BIO KWH1

11.45

-76.58

to 99.47

38.913

0.29

9

0.7753

NP KWH1

29.63

-269.11

to 328.38

132.061

0.22

9

0.8275

Oil KWH1

-4.139

-55.000

to 46.721

22.4831

-0.18

9

0.8580

NG KWH1

0.4164

-34.1482

to 34.9810

15.27949

0.03

9

0.9789

Coal KWH1

-7.136

-110.263

to 95.991

45.5879

-0.16

9

0.8791

Source of variation

Sum squares

DF

Mean square

F statistic

p

Model

4525.943

16

282.871

737.33

<0.0001

Residual

3.453

9

0.384

   

Total

4529.395

25

     

Coefficients

Coefficient Value

Value

CO2 Levels

Ave

CO2 Levels

Intercept

391.7

1.00E+00

3.92E+02

1.00E+00

391.7

Coal KWH1

-7.136

1.48E+00

-1.06E+01

9.00E-01

-6.4224

NG KWH1

0.4164

4.71E+00

1.96E+00

3.10E+00

1.29084

Oil KWH1

-4.139

1.85E+00

-7.66E+00

1.15E+00

-4.75985

NP KWH1

29.63

2.30E-01

6.81E+00

2.30E-01

6.8149

Hydro KWH1

5.829

3.67E-01

2.14E+00

3.67E-01

2.139243

Geo KWH1

25.52

9.20E-02

2.35E+00

9.20E-02

2.34784

Solar KWh1

-41.16

4.17E-02

-1.72E+00

5.00E-01

-20.58

Wind KWH1

41.13

1.43E-01

5.88E+00

1.40E+00

57.582

CO2 GDP

-0.05882

5.10E+02

-3.00E+01

4.80E+02

-28.2336

CO2 GDP1

-0.001466

4.16E+02

-6.10E-01

3.90E+02

-0.57174

USP

-7.274

1.80E-01

-1.31E+00

1.50E-01

-1.0911

Energy Cost

1.29

1.00E+01

1.29E+01

1.00E+01

12.9

Biomass KWH1

11.45

3.21E-01

3.68E+00

3.21E-01

3.67545

Energy ConsP

8.67E-08

9.46E+07

8.20E+00

5.50E+07

4.76916

Temp

3.437

7.00E-01

2.41E+00

7.00E-01

2.4059

Temp1

6.772

6.50E-01

4.40E+00

6.50E-01

4.4018

Result

3.91E+02

428.368443

The model has excellent correlation as shown by the R² variable equal to 1. The results indicate that the 2009 value for CO2 levels in our atmosphere can increase from 390 parts per million to 428 parts per million by decreasing the United States reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil by 25% and increasing the United States reliance on Solar and Wind energy by 25% (highlighted in red). Nuclear power, hydro power, biomass, and geothermal variables were held constant. Other 2009 variables were adjusted to keep up with the trends of using renewable energies such as increased energy costs, higher global temperatures (Temp and Temp5 – even with lower CO2 emissions the global temperature trend is upward), lower energy consumption (including the USP variable), and lower CO2 to GDP numbers.

This result makes a lot of sense since an increased reliance of renewable energy sources in the United States will not affect global emissions very much since the United States only accounts for 16% of the total greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Besides, even a massive increase in the global usage of renewable energy sources will never completely eliminate carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere.

The best conclusion that can be drawn from this model is that while CO2 emissions increased by nearly 10% in our atmosphere; the model indicates that global temperatures would decline. This violates the hypothesis created by the global warming community that CO2 emissions are making the earth warmer. Keep in mind that models are only as good as the variables, correlation, and trends that currently exist. If, for instance, a trend changes, it can render any model useless. But the bottom line is it easy to build a model that contradicts the findings of climate change scientists.

My Book: Is America Dying? (Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble)

No comments:

Post a Comment